Fund liquidation was the hallmark of grain markets today. Now that USDA reports are factored in, the focus will be on US weather and planting progress. The USDA’s first weekly crop condition report will be released on Monday afternoon. Next Friday is the USDA’s next monthly supply and demand report.
As of today’s close, May corn was down 13 ¾ cents, while December corn closed up 4 cents. In the soybean market, May closed down 35 cents and November futures closed down 14 cents. CBOT wheat closed down 21 cents, KC wheat down 17 cents and Minneapolis in July closed down 11 cents.
Weekly chart update
For the week, May corn closed down 19 cents at $7.35. This compares to $5.60 last year at this time. For soybeans, the May contract closed at $1.28 a bushel compared to $14.02 a year ago. This week, CBOT wheat closed down $1.18, KC wheat down 98 cents and Minneapolis wheat down 39 cents.
The main factor in the run-up to Monday’s exchanges will be the headlines of the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Fund liquidation continues as large inverses in the spot and futures markets tumble.
Currently, July corn is down 8¢, December corn is up 6¢. In the case of soybeans, July soybeans are down 13¢ and November soybeans are down 6¢. Wheat is mixed with lower CBOT and upper Minneapolis and KC trade.
For the week, nearby corn is down 17¢, nearby soybeans are down $1.10 a bushel and wheat futures are down 30¢ to over $1.00 the bushel.
Peace talks continue as the war continues. The news is mixed and the day-to-day volatility continues.
The stock market continues to fall and cattle are under pressure.
Next week more attention will be paid to North American weather conditions and planting progress. Wheat traders will be watching for the release of the USDA’s first crop condition report. After the USDA reports yesterday, grain markets will be very sensitive to weather conditions.
Cereal markets seem to continue to consolidate. The big surprise was the USDA’s Prospective Planting report, which showed 2.5 million acres of corn less than expected, and soybean acreage was 2.2 million acres above estimates. commercial. Total corn and soybean acreage was 180.5 million acres. The grain stocks report showed slightly less corn than expected, more soybeans than expected and, for wheat, about 20 million bushels less wheat stocks than expected.
Now that the reports are factored in, the key will again be the war in Ukraine, and from April there will be more focus on weather and planting conditions in the United States. USDA’s weekly crop status reports begin next Monday.
Grain prices were very volatile yesterday. Corn closed higher, soybeans down sharply and the wheat market was mixed. In overnight markets, grain markets are mostly down after starting higher last night.
At this time, July corn is down 10¢, while December corn is trading 5¢ higher. July soybeans are down 20¢ with November 14¢, and wheat prices are mixed with Chicago prices lower and KC and Minneapolis slightly higher. The funds continue to liquidate long positions.
In the outside markets today, Crude Oil is slightly lower after falling sharply yesterday. The US dollar is up 0.29 points and US stock index futures are down again. The huge old crop premium over the new crop price premium continues to decline.
Looking ahead to April and the second quarter of 2022
First, keep in mind that the March 31 acreage report is called the planting intentions report and the actual numbers may look different in the June 30 planting report.
With the current price ratio of soybeans to corn at 2.09 to 1, this rally will buy acres of corn this spring if Mother Nature cooperates.
Yesterday was the end of the month and the first quarter. Let’s see how prices trade next week.